Article
A Prediction, Stated Plainly
A placeholder article that happens to make a prediction — no special machinery, just prose with a probability in it.
Placeholder content, written to exercise the article template. It will be deleted before launch.
Forecasts here are just articles. If I want to put a number on something, I say it in a sentence — “I’d put this around 65% by the end of 2027” — and then spend the rest of the piece arguing why, and what would change my mind.
Why I think this
The reasoning goes here — the two or three load-bearing assumptions, and the one that would most change my mind if it turned out false.
What would move the number
A prediction is only honest if I can say what would revise it. If the leading indicator turns before the horizon, I’ll write a follow-up and link the two together.